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Frans Minnaar. Site Blog.


Collapse, not openess
The Madlanga Commission, the Zondo Commission and many more, and their findings, are not the manifestation of a free, more open and accountable country; it is the visible manifistations of a country where government institutions, and then specifically those with the means to exercise state violence, are handed over to criminals in return for power and money. It is evidence of a state in collapse.

Frans Minnaar
4 days ago0 min read


Municipal By-elections, Wards Won (2021-May 2026)
If I consider the results of wards won in by-elections since the 2021 Local Government elections, it seems to me that the ANC performance is declining, but not collapsing, and that of the DA stagnating, but declining in areas required to maintain the party's governance control over the Western Cape, and its competitiveness in the Northern Cape.

Frans Minnaar
4 days ago0 min read


Political Trends, August 2026
A total of 987,075 votes were casted during local government by-elections over the period since the 2021 Local Government elections, until the end of May 2026. Of these votes, 36,8% was in favour of the ANC, 24,61% for the DA, 4,18% for the MKP, 8,91% for the EFF, 6,4% for the EFF, 8,67% for the IFP, 1,53% for the FF+ and 9,91% for other (including independents).

Frans Minnaar
Sep 20 min read


Analysis of the outcomes of Local Government audits, 2024/25
I have done an assessment of risk exposure of South African municipalities, based on the results of the results of the 2025/25 audits conducted at municipalities by the Office of the Auditor-General.
I have included data about 256 district, local and metropolitan municipalities. Among these, 39 obtained a clean audit outcome, 116 an unqualified audit outcome, 86 qualified with matters, 5 adverse, 8 disclaimers and 2 did not submit their annual reports.

Frans Minnaar
Aug 250 min read


Unemployment, August 2026
According to the statistics reported by Statistics South Africa, the national unemployment rate was 33,6% in the second quarter, 2026. This represents a growth of 0,9%, quarter-on-quarter, compared with the period January to March 2026, and a growth of 0,4% on a year-to-year basis, compared with the period April-June 2025.

Frans Minnaar
Aug 180 min read


Corporate Value and Economic Model
The point I want to make is this: The popular believe and perception in South Africa that the United States of Anmerica is on the brink of collapse as a dominant world power is highly unlikely to materialise any time soon. The United States’ policies and framework for driving sustained economic propensity is sound. That, and, even more importantly, compared with the United States, South Africa has chosen the losing path, the road to poverty. Neither is that of Europe...

Frans Minnaar
Jul 160 min read


Cape Town, Property Rights and the Constitutional Court
The Constitutional Court's judgement that prohibits the City of Cape Town to sell land (its property) to private interests, in order to use it for developing low-housing housing near the CBD, is part of trends in court judgments that prioritise transformation and redress, while resulting in declining economic growth and a lack of certainty about property rights.

Frans Minnaar
Jul 90 min read


Results of Municipal By-elections: 2021-May 2026
I have done an analysis of the results of municipal by-elections over the period 2021 (the previous Local Government elections), until May 2026. (There may be a few by-elections to come, but not many, because the cycle is about to conclude and close in preparation for the coming 2026 Local Government selections).

Frans Minnaar
Jun 290 min read


Results of municipal by-elections: 2021-February 2026
The ANC performed worse in 46 by-elections at the time of these elections, compared with the party’s performance in those wards during the 2021 local government elections. The DA performed better in a net gain of 9 wards, the EFF performed better in 6, the PA in 16 and the IFP in 23. Other parties and independents performed worse in 13 wards.

Frans Minnaar
May 190 min read


Is SA a free and open democracy for those excluded from Constitutional protection?
South Africa is a democracy. It has the best Constitution; an example for other countries around the world, including in the Western world. This Constitution guarantees all possible freedoms to individuals. A true open society has been established, one that guarantee freedom and equality. That is the narrative; the unquestionable “reality” since 1994.
Except that, in reality, the South African constitution is rather complex in its allowances for, and guarantees of freedoms a

Frans Minnaar
May 160 min read


The Trias Politica and the Phala-Phala Judgement
The Phala Phala judgment is, at most, a technical interpretation of the prescriptions of the Constitution, read in conjunction with that of Parliament’s rules. It is not substitutive, or then, it is not a judgment where judges had to make ideological choices that will shape the nature of South African society. Furthermore, it must be read within the context of Ramaphosa’s diminishing influence in the midst of, for the lack of a better word, the “progressive forces” on the lef

Frans Minnaar
May 60 min read


The Baseline: Economic growth analysed
Over the period 1980 to 2025, the median annual unemployment rate was 22,2%, Over the period 1961 to 1993, the median annual unemployment rate was 14,8%, over the period 1994 to 2025, 23,3% and from 2008 to 2025, 25,8%.

Frans Minnaar
Mar 190 min read


Affirmative Action
Affirmative action; or, as it is shamefully called in South Africa: “Employment Equity”, was (and is) a total failure. It is an excuse for enriching the vultures circulating around the carcass of an economy in destruction because of the unique model of “redress” applied by those that stole everything they can lay a hand on.

Frans Minnaar
Mar 180 min read


The Cyril Ramaphosa Phenomenon
Was Ramaphosa a disappointment for me? Honestly, no; one cannot really be disappointed in another person where there were never any positive expectations. Look at Cyril Ramaphosa’s history, and you will find exactly what you got in South Africa since 2008. It’s not his fault; it’s the fault of those so desperately wanting to believe he will make their world a better place. Ramaphosa was always a revolutionary freedom fighter, a labour unionist, and an opportunistic ideologica

Frans Minnaar
Mar 120 min read


"The Firm": South Africa's Governing Oligarchy
The South African regime is nothing else than a criminals "firm". Everything is "top secrets". The small group that takes the decisions are experienced looters, monopolizing the benefits of their "revolution." It will be grave mistake to think that “The Firm” in South Africa is the ANC; it is not. Despite bitter personal infighting, there are beneficiation of collaborators in the criminal regime across political parties.

Frans Minnaar
Mar 110 min read
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