Frans Minnaar, Analyst

Hi there!

My name is Frans Minnaar.

I am a governance analyst. I analyse the political, - economic and policy environment in which government is operating, to conclude trends, scenarios and risks. Such analysis includes considering the capacity (strengths and weaknesses) of government institutions and resources. Part of my activities is to deliver comment on current events, within the context of my own interpretation of facts (meaning that I am partly an activist).

For more details about who I am, what I am doing, and how I do it, click here.

Collapse, not openess

The Madlanga Commission, the Zondo Commission and many more, and their findings, are not the manifestation of a free, more open and accountable country; it is the visible manifistations of a country where government institutions, and then specifically those with the means to exercise state violence, are handed over to criminals in return for power and money. It is evidence of a state in collapse.

Commentary

Frans Minnaar

1 day ago0 min read

Municipal By-elections, Wards Won (2021-May 2026)

If I consider the results of wards won in by-elections since the 2021 Local Government elections, it seems to me that the ANC performance is declining, but not collapsing, and that of the DA stagnating, but declining in areas required to maintain the party's governance control over the Western Cape, and its competitiveness in the Northern Cape.

Analyses

Frans Minnaar

1 day ago0 min read

Political Trends, August 2026

A total of 987,075 votes were casted during local government by-elections over the period since the 2021 Local Government elections, until the end of May 2026. Of these votes, 36,8% was in favour of the ANC, 24,61% for the DA, 4,18% for the MKP, 8,91% for the EFF, 6,4% for the EFF, 8,67% for the IFP, 1,53% for the FF+ and 9,91% for other (including independents).

Analyses

Frans Minnaar

Sep 20 min read

Analysis of the outcomes of Local Government audits, 2024/25

I have done an assessment of risk exposure of South African municipalities, based on the results of the results of the 2025/25 audits conducted at municipalities by the Office of the Auditor-General. I have included data about 256 district, local and metropolitan municipalities. Among these, 39 obtained a clean audit outcome, 116 an unqualified audit outcome, 86 qualified with matters, 5 adverse, 8 disclaimers and 2 did not submit their annual reports.

Analyses

Frans Minnaar

Aug 250 min read

Unemployment, August 2026

According to the statistics reported by Statistics South Africa, the national unemployment rate was 33,6% in the second quarter, 2026. This represents a growth of 0,9%, quarter-on-quarter, compared with the period January to March 2026, and a growth of 0,4% on a year-to-year basis, compared with the period April-June 2025.

Analyses

Frans Minnaar

Aug 180 min read